Friday, April 18, 2008, 1 PM
Olsson Hall 120

Predicted Travel Time: How Precise Should It Be?

Shinya Kikuchi, Ph.D. PE

Abstract

This presentation examines how the precision of predicted travel time influences a traveler's experience in terms of travel time, the match between the actual and the predicted travel time, and the match between the desired and actual arrival time. In the case of auto travel, there may be a paradoxical relationship between the precision of information and the quality of travel experience. The higher the precision of the predicted travel time, the greater the tendency that travelers' departure times concentrate; this leads to congestion, and, as a result, the traveler's satisfaction, measured by the travel time and the match between the actual and desired arrival time, tends to deteriorate. Based on a simple travel setting in which all travelers travel from an origin to a destination and wish to arrive at the same time, we examine the link between the precision of the predicted travel time, travelers' choices of departure times, variation of travel times, and the match between the actual and the desired arrival times. A high level of precision does not necessarily result in maximum traveler satisfaction, except at a very low travel volume. In the case of a high travel volume, a certain level of imprecision allows dispersion of the departure times and generates a positive effect to travelers' satisfaction. Further, the precision level that results in a high degree of match between the predicted and actual travel time is not always the best precision in terms of minimizing the average travel time and maximizing the match between the actual and desired arrival time. The best level of precision differs by travel volume. These findings suggest re-examination of the current belief, that is, the higher the precision of the predicted travel time the better.

Biography

Dr. Kikuchi is the Charles E. Via Jr. Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

The Civil Engineering seminar series is open to the University community.
Civil Engineering undergraduate students are especially invited to attend.